Kielder Marathon 2012 : Race Report

Three week run up: Injuries, Training and Predictions 

 I signed up for the Kielder Marathon just three weeks ago and now three weeks on I have the race report to write up!  Signing up so near to a marathon was all down to trying to judge how well Plantar Fasciitis in both feet and a knee injury would clear up - progress had been very slow but in a positive direction so I decided to task the risk.  At the same time I also signed up for the Jedburgh 3 Peeks Ultra that will be run for the first time in 3 weeks time, this meant the Keilder Marathon would make a perfectly timed last long training run for the Jedburgh Ultra. 

Over the last three weeks my right knee has improved significantly and had given little discomfort over the last week before the race.  I couldn't report the same progress with Plantar Fasciitis though, while improvement was evident it was very slow, everyday I that I've got up in the morning it's been uncomfortable to walk, and when getting up from working at my desk it's also been uncomfortable.  When running my feet would be sore for the couple of miles of 6 mile run, then be comfortable for three of four miles, then often discomfort would return, especially on faster or routes with steep descents.

Keeping training stimulus low enough to not strain my feet and train for a marathon has been a delicate balance - I've wanted to maintain fitness as much as possible whilst still giving my injuries the time they need to get better.  Long runs, steep hill runs and fast tempo runs were all tough on my injuries so I has largely cut them out, instead most of my training consisted of 6 mile easy to marathon paced runs, with only one tempo run and one long run of 16 miles.  The keep the training as race specific as I could I made sure the average elevation/descent per mile was around the same as Kielder marathon (~65ft/mile), with last ten days of taper mostly consisting of marathon paced/intensity 6 mile runs.  With these runs I was able to get a reasonable gauge of my fitness level and predict appropriate pace to run the marathon at.

With only three before the Jedburgh Ultra it was important that Kielder Marathon served as a good training run - providing stimulus for aerobic and endurance adaptations whilst avoiding making worse existing injuries or introducing new ones.  For this goal it was sensible to aim for a slower marathon.  My time predictions for the hilly Kielder Marathon route based on training suggested a time of mid 3:22 to 3:28 should be possible, equivalent to a 3:04 to 3:10 flat marathon time but this would require running a perfect marathon and higher intensity.  Rather that take the risk of training to run red lined marathon I decided a few days before to aim for 3:30, and noted the split times for every 5km for each just over 25 minutes.  From my marathon paced taper runs I also knew the feeling of intensity this would involve - around what the limit of what I could run whilst still breathing through just my nose.

I did my last training run on the Wednesday, got everything ready by Thursday and was all geared up to relax for a few days.  Friday morning came and after my wife took one of our daughters to the doctors she came back and reported that our doctor wanted us to all have the Flu vaccine that same day.  I haven't ever had a flu jab before, and it certainly wasn't something I'd normally choose to risk so close to big race but running a perfect race is so far below the priority of keeping my family healthy that it was just something I had to do.  Friday night I was pretty achy and didn't sleep well, clearly my bodies immune system had been given a kick and was now doing it stuff, but with it I felt every injury niggle that had haunted me over the last year.  Thankfully through Saturday my bodies inflammation response calmed down and the niggles mostly melted away, leaving just my Plantar Fascii complaining.

Race day:  Beautiful Weather, Beautiful Scenery

I stayed overnight at a guest house in Hawick in the Scottish border, got up at 6:30am to a bright but frosty morning, perfect conditions to run, but perhaps a tad chilly at the start line.  I dressed in my running kit with extra layers to keep warm and applied zinc sticky tape to both feet to support my Plantar Fascii.  The taping up is something I only decided upon in the day before the race as it's something I really didn't want to have to do, but with the last minute set back of the Flu jab my confidence in just roughing out tender feet changed to wishing to minimizing risks.  Deciding to tape myself up without ever having run was a concern, but it felt comfortable enough when jogging so I went with it.

The running kit I'd chosen was 2011 Kielder Marathon T-Shirt, Ronhill Trail Cargo shorts for ample pockets for snacks+phone it provides, Smartwool Toe Socks, Inov-8 Trailroc 245's trail running shoes.  Trail shoes aren't strictly necessarily for the rather well maintained and non technical trails of the Kielder Marathon but I don't ever run in anything other than trail shoes these days.


The drive from Hawick to Kielder Water took an hour, and was simply stunning crossing the moors with mist clinging to valleys and crystal clear visibility over the frosty hills above.  I arrived at the race car par at Falstone at 9:00am and then waited in a line for the shuttle bus along with several hundred other impatient of runners.  It took 50 minutes to get the front of the queue on a bus.  On arrival the official over the loud speakers declared that the race would be delayed from 10:15am to 10:30 to allow for all the runners to arrive on the shuttle buses.  Exactly the same problem hadn't in the last years, it's the weakest bit of Kielder Marathon experience - it just adds stress not knowing whether you'll get to the start in time.

With the delayed start I had twenty minutes to strip down to shorts, tshirt and head along the start.  I positioned myself about 50m back from the start, guessing that was probably around hundred runners and roughly the same number ahead as I'd expect there to be my the end. 

First 10k

The horn went off at 10:30 and we all shuffled across the line. The first km is on road that loops uphill before descending back down to near the start and goes through the final finish arch and then heads west in a clockwise direction around the side of Kielder Water.  I start at my planned intensity, breathing through my nose and attempting to keep my HR below 160.  Right away I was being swallowed up by hundreds of runners and this continued all the way to the top of the hill, on the descent I stayed relaxed and took back a few dozen places.

Within the first mile my Heart Rate (HR) had already hit 160, according to MARCO calculator this is where I should be at the 10k point, not by 1km.  My breathing and pace all felt very comfortable though, it felt around the 8min/mile that I was planning for so I just stuck to judging pace by my breathing as clearly the adrenalin of race day was skewing the HR readings too far pacing purposes. I kept my intensity nice and steady, with my pace naturally slowing down on hills, speeding up on descents as I relaxed letting gravity do it's thing and then just taking it nice and easy along the flats.

I was steadily passing runners from the mile one to mile 6, especially on the flat and descents.  Often runners would still keep with me or go past me on ascents but at a cost - laboured breathing a sure give away of them pushing too hard.  As soon as we'd crest the hill I'd glide effortless past them.  Knowing how to efficiently run hills has to be one of key benefits of living and training in the foothills of the highlands!

I ran through the 5km and them 10km markers just outside my loose target of 25 and 50 minutes, while my HR was now heading to mid 160's I was still able to comfortably breath through my nose and the level of effort felt easy.  My feet were a little uncomfortable but the rest of my body was perfectly relaxed.  The sun was shining, the supporters, strewards and other runners were all in great spirits - life was good!

10km to 20km

Not long after the 10k mark the route heads back north east along the north short of Lake.  At the one hour point I took on water and ate a brioche.  My using of breathing to judge pace was working well, despite all the ups and downs I was continuing to average around 8min/mile pace.  The steady pace meant that I continued passing runners.

Occasionally I'd strike up a conversation with fellow runners and run together for a while, but each time the marathon target time was discussed it was clear I was on pace while others were going out too fast for their planned time.  By the end of the second 10km mark I was now over taking runners on the hills, flats and descents.

The trail along the north shore is more open than the south shore so we were rewarded with great views looking across the Lake.  I didn't feel that I could take photo's whilst running so you'll have to do without on this occasion.  The views were not too dissimilar to some for the loch side trails I do here in the Trossachs, but with gently hills rather than mountains for backdrop.  The organizes claim it's Britain's most beautiful marathon, which might I'm sure a few Welsh and Scottish marathons would contest, but it still is very pretty and certainly adds to joy of running a marathon.

20km to 30km

Shortly after the 20km marker one passes the halfway point and according HR monitor watch I pass in 1:44:54.  I do a body scan to double check everything is OK.  My feet are sore by comfortable enough, my HR is now in high 160's and finally nearing to where the MARCO calculator suggests I should be, my knee hasn't complained at all, my hips, quads and calves are not showing signs of fatigue and my breathing is still easy - I can still comfortably breath through my nose.  I have to pinch myself as it really has been going so well so far, body is fresh and pacing spot on.

I take my first 200ml electrolyte drink at the 14mile aid station and run with it till it's empty.  I haven't tried this type before by it seems to go down OK.  While passing runners has been a one way street for the last 10 miles I finally caught a runner who clearly didn't want to be overtaken as each time I came within a metre behind he'd accelerate and pull away a few metres.  Amused for a couple of minutes I just kept my pace steady and once a next small ascent arrived he just gave up surging and I eased quietly past.

The Dam at the end of Lake was now in view and felt quite close but still three miles away according to the signs on the trail.  The mis-matched soon explained by turned a corner to run into an inlet the heads into the hills for half a mile and then back out gain.  You follow the trail around the inlet, and to add to merriment three yachts were mored up together in the middle of the inlet with their occupants sounding horns and cheering the runners.  You can see runners stretched out ahead and on the other side of the inlet so it's both majestic and a little daunting - the runners on the other side are all half a mile ahead and heading uphill.

Feeling good I keep up the intensity slightly as per the MARCO's guidelines with my HR now in the low 170's but still feel totally in control with few signs of fatigue.  At mile 17 we cross the Dam and I continue my steady passing of runners with my pace around 7:30min/mile on the first and last long bit of flat course.  Mile 18 passes soon after arriving back on the South Shore and I still feel good, with only my feet and a little discomfort accumulating in what feels like my hip joints.  Everything has good perfectly and now confidently looking to a strong finish and a sub 3:30 time.

30km to finish

I take another electrolyte drink and consume the whole carton but it doesn't sit that well in my stomach.  A couple of minutes later, at around mile 19, I start to get a stitch on the right hand side that quickly spreads right under my rib cage.  I work hard to keep my breathing steady and deep whilst keeping the intensity constant with the hope that it'll just pass.  The discomfort doesn't pass but gets worse so with hills of Bull Crags half a mile away I decide to easy off on the pass get my HR back below 170 and see if I can fix the problem.  For the first time since the ascent of first hill in the first half my steady passing of runners ahead slows down, I am still catching them but at half the rate, my pace is also slipping with 8:30 pace a struggle.  To underline my loss of pace a runner passes me running strong, I pass on words of encouragement and she reciprocates - we've both been passing runners steadily but now it's my turn to be be humbled.

I head up the Bull Crags switch backs keeping running uphill, while I'm not running fluently as I was I'm still passing runners, or should I say walkers as I'm one of the few left running uphill at this stage.  Once we crest I open up my legs and pick up the pace on the gentle downhill to sub 7:30 pace.  Reducing the intensity has helped with the stitch but it's still sore, and what was just a minor discomfort in the hips had now turned into significant discomfort with my hip flexors tightening up.  Previously I was running with no tension in my body but now my hips and torso were locking up, managing 8min/mile pace on the descents was now painful.  The next mile marker now let me know that I was in the last three miles to go but now I would have to run near to 7 min/mile pace to get in under 3:30, and while half an hour before this would have seemed easy my body was now fighting ever step.  The last three miles I was passed by around half a dozen runners finishing strong, and was able to pass a similar number in my 8:30 to 9:30min/mile shuffle.

The course heads back to the finish at the Waterside Centre with the crowds lining the last 100ms of road to under the finishing arch.  The lure and excitement of the finish overcomes my physical woes and I'm able to pick up the pace and finish in some semblance of good form.  I cross the line,  stop my watch at 3:36:34 and approach ladies handing out water slowing to a jog then a stop and my right quad starts to cramp up, so I just stood their looking pained and perplexed at the friendly faces in front of me.  The cramps eases off just by standing for a few seconds and allows me to hobble over to get my water. 

Official race time f*ck up

Right after the finish the timing company had a tent for giving runners official times and places right away, even providing a print out right there.  I was impressed till the guy manning the timing computer said that my number hadn't been recorded and declared it was my fault for folding my number over to just display the number.  He claimed the number with integral timing foil wouldn't be picked up correct because the fold would shield it.  I knew this was BS as the timing element was only behind one layer of paper no mater whether it was on unfolded or folded, and paper wouldn't shield a magnetic field anyway.  He then went on to lecture me that it was against UK Athletic rules to fold race numbers.  He did however say they had a backup system of recording finishers manually.

I always fold my race numbers to just show the numbers as I've had numbers tear during fell races in the past so fold them over to avoid catching the wind and to make sure there is double material where I put the pins through.  I had never been informed of this rule about not folding the race number.  I've since double checked the Kielder Marathon website and all the materials sent from Kielder and no information about not folding race numbers, just says to fix the race number securely...  The UK Athletics rules do include it, but one has to go looking closely at rules.

Today (Monday, day after race) the racetimingsystems.com that provided the timings has posted their results for the race and my time isn't up, plenty of runners before and after my time, but when I search for my entry I get:

Status	Pos	Overall	Bib	Competitor	Category	Half	Chip time	Finish
Not yet started	1		3511	Robert Osfield	V40

So... I've done the race, I've got my medal, race T-Shirt and aching muscles but still officially I haven't started yet... What happened to the backup system?  What's more my bib number according to them is 3511 but what number I was sent and wore was 4502.  Might this be the source of the screw up?  Incompetence somewhere along the line rather than BS about me folding my number?

Looking at others on the official time it looks like I came around 100th out of 1400 or so runners.  I don't know if I'll ever find out officially what my time and place was.

Postrace analysis

I finished in a time of 3:36:34, which I know I should be chuffed with as it looks likely on a flat course this would be worth a time of 3:16 to 3:20 which would be a huge PB.  It's still slower than my pre-race predictions suggested was possible and more than 6 minutes off what I was very confident of achieving at the 18 mile mark, and 4 minutes outside of my 3:32:26 PB done in Edinburgh two years.

My average HR was 169 for the day, which is higher than the MARCO guidelines suggested of an average 168, I would say this shows that I didn't miss my predications due to lack of effort, but the reality was I didn't put any particular effort until the 18 mile mark, up till then I was simply gliding along completely within myself, my HR was high, but breathing was very easy with little signs of fatigue from my legs and energy levels we all good.  At this point I was actually cruising along wondering just how far I could go at pace, 30miles? More?

What sapped my pace in the end was the combination of the stitch and hip flexors ceasing up.  It may have been the drink that caused the stitch, or perhaps more likely running with a HR of 170+ and drinking 200ml of drink over a few minutes.  Perhaps if my HR had been a tad lower my stomach might have had enough activity to properly handle the influx of a cold calorie rich drink.

My hip flexors ceasing up caught me unexpected.  While I struggled with hip flexor injuries this time last year, mostly this year I have got over these injuries and in all my training over the past 8 weeks haven't had any signs of weakness.  However, the marathon I did 8 weeks ago was at a slow ultra marathon style pace, walking the steeper hills rather than running.  I suspect my lack of hard hills and long runs since doing that marathon have not kept the robustness in all my running muscles and tendons to handle over three hours running a quick marathon over hilly terrain.

Or... can I just blame it all on the Flu jab that I had 40 hours earlier.  My inflammation response through Friday night was quite noticeable.  This response calmed down through Saturday and by evening seemed mostly fixed.  Running a marathon isn't any ordinary endeavor though, could it be a factor in my body fatiguing/suffering greater inflammation in unexpected ways.

One last bit of jigsaw is why such a high average HR when the pace and intensity wasn't that high.  My analysis of training and how this would map to a marathon finishing time of 3:36 would have suggested an average HR around around 162 to 164bpm would have been required.  Seeing a race day HR 5 higher than this is disappointing but not totally without precedent - my HR of 178 was around 5 higher than my normal HR when I run a hard 6 mile run in training.  The obvious candidate to explain this elevated HR during races would be adrenelin.

Having an elevated HR during race day isn't necessarily a problem, the key thing is how you feel when you run and how your overall race goes, no race is won based on HR readings.  However, I do wonder for these longer races whether digestion of calories and fluids is compromised by elevated HR's, or simply whether adrenalin and associated hormones make the stomach less friendly to consumption.  The races I primarily run are Ultramarathons so digestion is something I really need to get a proper handle on so I'd like to unravel this particular part of the mystery.

Recovery and beyond

Today I've been generally stiff but most surprisingly is that my plantar fascii has been better today than they were in the days running up to the marathon.  During and right after the marathon my left plantar fascii was very sore and I was concerned that I had made the injury worse, so to find today that it's improved to better than it was in previous weeks is encouraging.  Could it be that I've broken down scar tissue?

My plan for the rest of the week is take it easy training wise, partly out of interest in recovery, and partly just out of having a frantic week with the last of my life.  I'd like to squeeze in a recovery run or two this week just to get the legs moving, but if I don't get the chance I won't fret.

Next week I'll be away on a family holiday and will take my kit with me, perhaps run when I can, by the time I return from that family holiday it'll be one week before Jedburgh Ultra and I'll be back in full taper once more.   This time rather practicing averaging 7:40 to 8:00min/mile pace I'll be aiming to average nearer 9 to 10min/mile pace and add in some steep hills to walk up to prep for the 3 peaks!

Kielder Marathon : Predicting Finish Time, Part 2, Using Training Logs

In Part 1 I of my little essay on predicting Kielder Marathon finish time I covered using online calculators and use of PowerOfTen website comparing other runners race Kielder results and their 10k times to my own race times.  As the Kielder Marathon is hilly the online calculators are way out - typically 10 to 20+ minutes out.  Using race result comparisons does allow one to look at the effect of the hills at the Kielder Marathon but is also imperfect as there is huge range of variability between how well different runners convert their 10k times to Kielder race times.  So... the hunt continues for a better, more personalized method. 

Personalized Sports Science : Measure -> Analysis

Through this years training and races I've been wearing my Heart Rate (HR) monitor and recording my heart rate, calories consumed, distance ran and ascent/descent.  My intention has been to try and track the effect of training on fitness and how how this relates to race performances, the end goal is to know what works/doesn't work training wise and also what paces to run when doing races.

The first step in accessing fitness was to come up with a representative value for my current level of fitness, while there are plenty of physiological variables to measure that related to fitness I'm only armed with only a HR monitor and GPS on a phone so I have to make do with just these.  The most representative value that I could easily measure was calories per mile (using HR monitor), based on the principle the fitter I am the more efficient I'll be.

However, calories per mile measured by a HR monitor is effected by how hilly a route is, how long the run is due to HR drift and how hot the day is, as well as actual fitness/stress levels etc.  Rather than try and resolve all these variables this this year I've settled upon just trying to factor out the effect of hills and HR drift on the measured calories per mile, giving me an effective efficiency value for any given run.  The model I've used for effective efficiency is:

  EffectiveEfficiency = RecordedCaloriesPerMile * CourseRatio
  CourseRatio = 1/ (1 + RecordedElevationPerMile*ElevationRatio)*
                              (1+ RecordedDuration*DurationRatio)

The RecordedCaloriePerMile is the calories recorded by my HR monitor for a run, the RecordedElevationPerMile is the elevation divided by distance as recorded by Phone's GPS route tracking software (SportyPal).  The RecordedDuration is how long the run took.

The ElevationRatio and DurationRatio are there to calibrate the run so that runs during a similar period of time will have a similar EffectiveEfficiency despite runs being hillier or longer than others.  For this year I've simply been estimating what these ratio are based on how consistent I can get EffectiveEfficiency across training runs. I've found an ElevationRatio of 1/500 (units mile/feet),  and a DurationRatio of 1/20 (units 1/hours) work reasonably well for the data I've recorded this year.   To see how EffectiveEfficiency smooths out the recorded data have a look at the my logs for Measured Efficiency (calories per mile, in blue) and Effective Efficiency ((calories per mile, in red) for this years training and racing. 

Note how the big peaks in measured efficiency are largely removed so we get a more consistent signal of relative fitness, these big peaks are the big training runs and ultra's that I've run this year.  To the right hand side we have January, progressing month by moth to October on the left, the gaps are the month boundaries. I'll leave analysis of what the month by efficiencies mean w.r.t how my training went on another blog entry as I still have plenty to get to my final conclusions on pacing...

The key take away is that Effective Efficiency normalizes my recorded efficiency so I can more easily look at trends and relate how my fitness is at different times.  The EffectiveEfficiency might been seen as the efficiency I can achieve during the first few steps during a run, while this is useful for general comparisons on it's own it doesn't tell use what will happen when we run further or on hiller courses.

Extrapolating Shorter Training Runs to Marathon Distance

The formula I came up with for EffectiveEfficiency while very simple does a reasonable job at smoothing out the effects of hills and HR drift during long runs, but it also offer the tantalizing possibility that it might be able to predict what will happen to efficiency per mile if we run for longer or over a course with a different amount of ascent/descent.  From the computed efficiency per mile for this theoretical run we can also work out what the average HR would likely be.  The computed efficiency and HR rate can also be used to estimate the intensity and from this the pace that would theoretically be achieved.

I'll write up the maths for these computations in another post when I have more time available, for now I'll move on to what happens when I use this approach to extrapolate my recent training runs to the 26.2miles and ~65ft/mile ascent/descent per mile of the Kielder Marathon.  Below are the results from the last two weeks of training, comprising some laid back long runs, easy runs, marathon paced runs and one tempo run.

On the left is what time is a time of 4:16 at an average predicted HR of 152, which for me is very gentle amble, and on the right is a 3:03 at an average predicted HR of 177.  The extreme case was extrapolated from a 10k tempo run where my actual HR was 166, with HR drift it goes up to 177 and there is no way I could sustain that type of HR for a 3 hours so it's only theoretical mapping.

As a point of validation the Modulen Marathon I did around the Trossachs back at the beginning of August I did in 4:18 with an average HR of 145 over hillier terrain than the Kielder.  This marathon actually maps to 4:13 Kielder marathon once we factor in the difference in hills.  Unfortunately I've lost fitness since then so the higher 152 HR for a similar time is probably not far off.  Have my injuries to blame for lack of training for that loss of fitness :-|

Achievable Average HR for different duration of races

The next big question is just what HR might I be able to sustain on average over the whole marathon.  To answer this question I have to look back to my races over different distances, and the below is graph that plots my average HR for races from my Killin 10km (HR 178, time 39m:36s) through to Highland Fling (HR 152, time 10h:46m).

The most relevant area is around the 3:30 mark, and my 3:22 time doing the Stuc a'Chroin race back in 2011 is the nearest point of interest.  My average HR for the Stuc a'Chroin race was 168.  Curiously if I plan my max HR of 192 into the MACRO calculator it suggests my average HR should be 167 for the marathon which fits in surprisingly well with Stuc a'Chroin race record.

Another surprising aspect about the graph is just how straight it is between my 3:32/ HR 168/Stuc a'Chroin, 5:12/HR 164/Dirty 30 and 10:46/HR 152/Highland Fling.  The only point that bucks the trend is the 1:28:58/HR 169 data point I collected when I ran half marathon PB during a frosty and still Buchlyvie marathon back in November 2010.

So from this data it probably quite reasonable to assume that an average HR of 168 is achievable for the Kielder Marathon.  When we take HR drift into account this maps to an average HR of around 157/158 when running a ~10k marathon paced training run.  This also maps to the average HR range that the MARCO calculates for me for the first 10k of the marathon.  Having two completely different sources of fitting reasonably closely is encouraging and suggests my method is not far off.

Armed with this target range of 157/158 for my ~10km marathon paced training runs I've been able to do test runs where I follow as best I can the HR progression suggested by the MARCO calculator and run over local trails that best mirror the type of elevation/descent that the Kielder Marathon has.  Choosing routes that mirror the Kielder Marathon helps get keep the pace estimates based on training more accurate and also has allowed me to practice the feel of intensity as I go up and down hill.

For my taper I've concentrated on marathon paced training runs, so 6 out 7 of my last training runs have all been around marathon paced intensity, with pace around 7:36 min/mile to 7:52 min/mile pace.  The pace feels reasonably comfortable, I'm able to breath just through my nose, but only just, so I'll know when I'm racing if I shut my mouth and start to struggle just breathing through my nose I'm working too hard.  I do find that it's hard to keep my HR down on ascents, and on the flats after descents I have to consciously pick up the pace to keep my HR in appropriate zone.  This pace does feel like a plausible pace for a marathon, the thought of doing it for 3 and half hours is still pretty daunting.

If I look at just my last seven runs, 6 marathon paced, 1 easy the extrapolated to Kielder Marathon HR and times look like:

What you'll see from this is that the extrapolated times and HR from my marathon paced runs all bring me in the 3:21 to 3:28 range, but this will require a level of effort similar to what I did in the Stuc a'Chroin feel race last year, and it was tough so it's no easy call.

In the first part 1 of my estimates I came to conclusion based on other runners who look to have relatively close 10k's to me a sub 3:30 should be possible, and the three runners I looked at fitted into the 3:21 to 3:28 range as well so I again we are seeing a reasonable correlation of data from totally different sources which is encoraging.

Another source of validation is to look back the very little bit of training that I was able to do before last years disastrous Kielder Marathon where I did 3:55.  Use the same extrapolation methods a 3:46 time would have been plausible given an average HR of 169, to do this one would have have done a perfect race with an even split.  However, I screwed up totally and started too fast, completing the first half in 1:39 and slumped to a 2:16 second half, rather than do 1:52 half that I should in hind-sight should have been targeting.

I believe this retrospective look at my 2011 Kielder Marathon performance is particularly interesting when judging the value of the method that I've been discussing here - the most conservative of the online calculators (MARCO) suggested 3:12 time based on my then most recent 10k time while I actually did 3:55 which is a 43 minute difference.  While my new method of extrapolating training run performance would have mean look at 3:45 to 3:50 as being possible.  Instead I settled for aiming for a 3:30 time, adding 20 minutes in for the hills, which might not have been too bad, but totally ignored how much fitness I had lost while recuperating from last years Achilles injury.  If I had the extrapolation method last year I believe there is good chance I would have done a sub 3:50 time.

So... after all this model development, collecting and analysis data what is my final prediction for my 2012 Kielder Marathon?  I believe a sub 3:25 time is on if I run a perfect race, put everything into it, and am not held back my niggling knee and plantar fasciitis in both feet.

However, I also have the Jedbugh Three Peaks 38mile Ultra coming up, it's just three weeks after the Kielder so coming away from this Sunday's race fresh and without exacerbating existing injuries has to be worthwhile goal.  I have the option of just taking it easy, beating my time from last year should be easy, and even beating my Marathon PB of 3:32:26 done back in May 2010 during the Edinburgh Marathon should be possible without red-lining it.

Balancing the desire to set a big PB and saving myself for Jeburgh I feel that a compromise time of targeting 3:30 would give me a PB, and on a tougher course too, but shouldn't in theory require pushing myself to my limit.

For those wondering how to work out their own Kielder Marathon time I would suggest using the MARCO calculator and use input race times that best represent your current level of fitness and add 10% to account for hills you'll encounter at Kielder.  In the longer term I'd like to refine the methods that I've used a bit more and make them accessible to others, input and suggestions from others would be very welcome.

Signed up: Kielder Marathon and Jedburgh 3 Peaks Ultra Marathon

I have finally stopped my dithering and signed up for two up coming events, the Kielder Marathon on Sunday 7th of October, and the 38 mile Jedbrugh Three Peaks Ultramarathon three weeks later on the Sunday 28th of October.

Why the dithering? The Plantar fasciitis in both feet and right knee pain that arose at the beginning of August still hasn't cleared up.  These injuries are slowly getting better, but slowly isn't ideal when you have races coming up.  For the last month I've stepped off the intensity and distance in training, and added daily foot massage and stretching to help the healing process.  This has helped but progress is slow making it difficult to know exactly when the injuries will be fully healed.

Plantar fasciitis is known to be an injury that can take time to heal so I'm certainly not alone with these troubles, and I have to be realistic in my expectation of them being fully healed in the next three weeks - i.e. I'd be very lucky for them to be fully healed.  This leaves me pragmatic question - will my injuries be healed enough to know I'm not taking a big risk of exacerbating an injury in running in an event?

For the last six weeks I've been balancing the reward of doing events vs risking further injury.  I ran the Killin 10k with my feet tapped up and did a PB and got away without making the injuries worse.  However, I had planned to run the Aberfledy Marathon following Saturday and as the week progressed the Plantar Fascia's didn't improve as hopped, and right on the Thursday before the I did a 4 mile marathon paced test run and my feet just didn't feel good enough to handle 26 miles on the road so I canned entering the event.  This was hard to do as I knew given my training and 10k PB I was shape to set a big PB for the marathon.  The Shakespeare quote "Discretion is the better part of Valour", and the "Live to fight another day" phrase were using coming to terms with missing out on a PB.

So Fight Another Day (or two) I will, the 7th and 28th October it will be!

Now I've entered I can stop worrying about whether I'll be fit or not and just get on with preparation for doing both events and making sure I'm in the best shape I can be for each event.   If I were just focussing on the Jedburgh Ultra I'd be planning to do a final marathon distanced run three weeks before so the Kielder marathon fits perfectly for this.  The proximity of another big race after the Kielder marathon will also change my mental state for the marathon - it'll be as much a last big training run as a race, so I'll have it in mind not to push to hard or take too many risks.  I tend to get overly anxious before big races and struggle to sleep, so taking some pressure off may well help my performance and subsequent recovery.

My plan is focus of getting myself fit for the Kielder Marathon, and not worry about specific training for the Jedburgh Ultra - as long as I complete the Marathon in good shape then I'll be all set for the Ultra.  My primary concern with getting "fit" for the marathon will be primarily about healing my Planta Fascia and my right knee, and secondly about maintaining the aerobic fitness that I built up during first half of the year.

I've been tracking my efficiency (calories per mile) on training runs using my HR monitor through the year and know that my fitness has slipped around 5% over the last month.  I think this is combination of having a bit of cold over the last few weeks and backing off on the weekly mileage (down from mid 40 mile's per week to mid 25's).  I would dearly love to be able to get my efficiency back up to where it was in time for the Kielder Marathon, but this can't come at the cost of not healing my injuries. 

This leads one on to the question of how best to train and aid injury recovery.  Do I add cross training, if so what type is best for Planta Fascii and Knee injuries? Do daily short runs or longer runs with days of rest in between? Do I curtail specific types of such long runs, fast runs and hill runs? Do I add particular stretching or strengthening exercises?

I don't have any answers yet, feel free to make suggestions :-)

My current approach is to do modest test runs of different types to see how my body responds during the run and the subsequent recovery in hours and days after.  Whether my injuries get better or worse or just stay the same will hopefully give me a guide to what I can safely do.

While I am a bit anxious about injuries I know I'll be it pretty good shape, in fact even if nothing changes from today I'll the best shape I will ever have been on entering a Marathon.  I could do an easy jog around Kielder Water and beat my time of 3:55 set last year, and beating my PB of 3:32 set back at Edinburgh Marathon in spring of 2010 should be well within reach.  I'll do a follow up post to provide some estimates on what time I might be able to do...

For now I'll not worry about details and allow myself to get a little excited about just getting out there and running, Kielder Marathon and Jedburgh 3 Peaks Ultra here I come!! ;-)